“The entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it, and exploits it as an opportunity.” - Paul Drucker
You can’t manufacture luck. It just happens. Or it doesn’t.
For most of my life, I believed that to be true. One morning I’d find a ten-dollar bill on the street and call it a lucky day. A few weeks later I’d realize I lost a twenty somewhere between meetings and call it a crappy day. To be in the right place at the right time, or the wrong place at the wrong time, seemed simply to be a matter of happenstance; it was completely random and out of my control.
Or was it?
A few years ago, Becky Blanton’s story came up at one of my Entrepreneurs’ Organization (EO) meetings. You may have seen her moving TED talk about being homeless for eighteen months. Her story is powerful and a must-watch, but the discussion at EO was about Becky’s unique ability to find lost money on the street.
She developed a method based on identifying patterns and, using that method, picked up five to fifty dollars a week. Every week. If I found fifty bucks over the course of a week, I’d think the seas had parted and pigs had learned to fly. Talk about luck, fifty bucks a few weeks in a row would clearly mean I had massive amounts of luck on my side. But for Becky, luck had nothing to do with it. She expected it. She created it.
I started to think about that elusive “good fortune” so many big business success stories seemed to feature. I thought about how, no matter how hard I worked, or how well I networked, or how many books I read (or wrote, for that matter), my current business still wasn’t taking off. I’d had success in the past, but not this goround, and had started to buy into the theory that most entrepreneurs subscribe to: Sometimes you do everything right, and you still can’t make your business work. Sometimes you just can’t predict the trends that shake up your industry. Sometimes luck is not on your side. Right?
Wrong. I was wrong. So wrong.
After hearing Becky’s story, I began to change my belief about the concept of luck. What if luck had nothing to do with it? Or— and here is where I began to have a radical thought—what if I could create my own luck simply by paying attention to the patterns in my own industry?
Maybe Becky was on to something. Maybe spotting a trend before it took off wasn’t a skill exclusive to media darlings and wunderkinder.
Maybe I could manufacture luck.
In the years since I heard Becky’s story, I studied “luck” and applied what I learned to my businesses. Sometimes I failed; sometimes I succeeded. Eventually, I came up with my own method for spotting what others are not trained to see: the next trend in my industry. I figured out how to be in the right place at the right time, over and over again. The more I practiced it, the easier it was to implement. And now that I know my method works, I’m ready to let you in on it.
When I sat down to write this book, I contacted Becky Blanton to ask if she would agree to an interview. I wanted to hear her story firsthand. As luck (ahem) would have it, we were able to meet for breakfast at a Waffle House on the outskirts of Charlottesville, Virginia.
After the death of her father in 2006, Becky packed everything she owned into a 1975 Chevy van and set out to travel the country with her dog and cat. It was a grand idea, but more difficult in practice.
Despite her success as a journalist, despite her education and experience, she ended up homeless for more than a year.
Though she had a job at a camping store at the time, Becky often went without food for two or three days in a row. In search of enough money for a cheap meal, Becky began looking for money people dropped on the street. “I’d be at Walmart, three dollars to my name, and look around the parking lot for change,” she said. “I started thinking, ‘Where do I usually find money?’ Whenever I found money, I’d notice the things those places had in common. Then I’d ask myself, ‘What do those places have in common with other places?’ Then I would start looking for that pattern in my environment.”
Becky noticed she often found money where it could be trapped, usually wherever she could spot a ninety-degree angle. “There’s always a corner or a curb. Phone booths. Milk crates lying around are like money butterfly nets. Finding money was like learning the good fishing spots, except I was learning the good money ‘catch and hold’ spots.”
Another pattern Becky discovered yielded her even more cash: She tended to find money in places where people most frequently take bills and coins out of or put money in their pockets, or where money might fall out. “It sounds gross,” Becky said, “but people always drop quarters and nickels and dimes around toilets. Nobody wants to dig around on the floor and pick up their own change. People also drop money at bus stops, but don’t even notice because they’re in a hurry to get on the bus. The clanking of coins is covered by the buses’ engine noise, and dollars float away in silence.”
Paying attention to this pattern, Becky consistently found money near hot dog vendors and parking meters, in arcades, at bus stops, of course, and—duh—in couches at furniture stores. “Almost no one sees the money that is constantly around them. But I find dimes, quarters and dollars all the time,” Becky said.
“You have to train your eyes for it. Once it’s on your radar, you do it all day. I still do it, because it’s a habit. My friends ask all the time, ‘How do you always find money?’ I just know what to look for. Once you’ve seen the pattern, you spot it all the time. You see opportunity everywhere. And once you learn the practice, you can do it anytime, anywhere.”
As I dug into my fried eggs and my sweet cream waffle, I thought about the Big Kahunas, the business legends. Every successful business you can think of had a big dose of good fortune; they were at the right place at the right time: AirBNB, Facebook, Uber, Google, Apple, Microsoft , Ford, the company leading in your industry, every single industry leader. Most people would say the founders of these companies got lucky, that opportunity just landed in their laps. Those people would be only half right.
The founders of rock star companies truly were lucky… but I was starting to see that good fortune didn’t just fall into their laps. It was a revelation to realize that being in the right place at the right time doesn’t have to be some arbitrary force of the universe. Luck isn’t about fate, or worth, or karma, or tiny green Irish men. Luck is about foresight paired with strategic action. Luck is about planning.
Luck is about foresight paired with strategic action.
Luck is about deliberately putting yourself in the right spot at the right time. Spot the next trend wave that is almost upon you, position yourself in front of it and you’ll capture a surge of consumer demand for your product or service.
I know the prospect of spotting and riding trend waves can seem daunting. It would be so much easier if we could just buy a crystal ball or master time travel. As I was finishing the edits on this, my fourth book and the first in my “Sweet Spot” series, we officially entered the future—the future in Back to the Future Part II, that is. When I was but a wee lad, suffering through acne and getting everything come down to happenstance.
Spotting and riding a trend wave might sound about as doable to you as finding your very own DeLorean time machine. I know you’re eager for answers. You’ve done everything you can for your business. You took a risk on your big idea. You worked your butt off, sacrificed your retirement fund and time with your family, and educated yourself about better business practices. You sucked it up and learned how to network. You found your way over, under, or around every challenge that came your way. So why isn’t your business the Big Kahuna in your industry? Why is your company still limping along, yet to live up to the potential you envisioned? What will it take for your business to experience a powerful surge of consumer demand?
The answer is simple: You have to be in the right place at the right time. (Yes, it all comes back to that essential truth.)
When I give keynote speeches on this topic, this is usually the moment when I hear groans from the audience. I’m always surprised (but grateful) that people don’t throw tomatoes at me or rush the stage in an angry mob. I suppose no one lashes out at me because they know I’m right. Anyone who has been in business for a few years knows that no matter how hard you work, or how brilliant your idea is, you haven’t got a chance if you haven’t accurately anticipated market demand. So why the groans? Because most people believe luck is something out of their control. I did—until Becky Blanton’s story inspired me to think differently.
I’ve been in the entrepreneurial trenches for twenty years now, and if there’s one thing I know for sure, it’s that conventional wisdom is usually a bunch of B.S.
When it comes to business, luck is entirely within your control.
I’m sure plenty of people will disagree with me; I’m used to it. I’ve ruffled a few feathers via my books (one Amazon review of my books hints that I am the devil child, saying, “He’s the devil child.”) and speeches (I was invited to keynote a CPA conference, and when I said I would explain why profit should never be the bottom line, but the top line… I was promptly disinvited). But it is only by busting myths that you successfully build a business. I’m all about doing what works, not what should work. I’ve seen a lot of businesses fail simply because the leaders at the helm followed the status quo without question.
After all these years, I can say with absolute certainty that timing is everything. I built and sold two multimillion-dollar businesses, launched two other successful businesses—including another multimillion-dollar business)—and built a career as an author and speaker.
I also had more failures than successes, and after I made ridiculous amounts of money with my companies, I became ridiculous and wasted away all my money. But unlike most people, I no longer believe good timing is reserved for “the lucky ones” who stumble upon a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, or the geniuses who have some “sixth sense” about commerce. Nope. Being in the right place at the right time is a process that anyone can master.
As Becky said, you just have to notice the patterns. Once you’re aware of the patterns, you’ll notice them everywhere.
You might think this is where I tell you that Surge will teach you how to build your own DeLorean time machine. I mean, not really, but, you know, metaphorically speaking. Nope. You don’t need it.
The five-step SURGE process I detail in this book will not only teach you the method of identifying the next wave of demand in your business, but also how to capture its energy and ride that wave like a pro.
I don’t just write about this stuff. This method isn’t merely a concept or a simple derivative of the clarity of hindsight. SURGE is the process I used in my own business. After implementing some of the SURGE techniques, I modified some of what I learned to better meet my own needs and objectives (you should do the same) and boiled the steps down to the simple process I share in this book: the essence of SURGE.
You see, you and I are in the same boat. As I wrote this book, I was deep in the surge of my newest company, Profit First Professionals (PFP). To get PFP off the ground, I made extensive use of the exact SURGE method you are about to learn. Not only did SURGE work for me… it worked fast. And it will for you, too.
After I finished my second serving of Waffle House coffee, Becky and I walked out into the parking lot to bid each other adieu. I fumbled for my keys while Becky, almost unnoticeably, scanned the curbs. A crumpled twenty-dollar bill sat right next to the gutter, hidden in plain sight. She picked up the bill, flattened it out, and exclaimed, as she put it in her pocket, “It’s gotta be my lucky day… again.”
Settle in. You’re about to get lucky too.
Once you’re aware of the patterns, you’ll notice them everywhere.
When you find the surge, you can position your company in front of it and ride it all the way to remarkable growth.
Ex: Skype and when companies started adding video cameras to laptops.
Skype sold to Microsoft for $8.5 billion!
Your success is more about timing than anything. Yes, you need to have a great offering that is distinct from your competition— that’s the “right place” part. And the “right time” is all about catching the marketplace wave as it rolls through. Miss it, and you can When you find the surge, you can position your company way to remarkable growth.
If you want to experience stratospheric growth, you need to master timing.
Bill Gross’s wildly popular TED video explaining why timing is the single biggest reason why startups succeed? He timed talking about timing perfectly. The successful rich guy down the street? Timing. The successful businesses in your industry, on your block, down the hall? Timing. Every successful person you know? Timing.
The success of your business? Timing.
You can only ride the biggest marketplace wave when it appears. You don’t make it happen. And you can’t have a killer ride on a ripple. It’s impossible. Passion is mandatory. Skills are important, of course. Experience (usually) helps; a history translates into confidence, without a doubt. But all that stuff is useless if you don’t have a wave to ride. And all that stuff is insignificant when the wave presents itself.
SURGE is about capturing waves—spotting the imminent market trend that is on the verge of swelling and then riding it all the way to industry domination.
Real, lasting success depends on finding a way to align your company with the natural, powerful waves that are already rolling through the ocean that is your industry, every day.
Because of the way waves form, any surfer will tell you that you need to start paddling in the same direction the wave is moving before it arrives, so that you get carried by the momentum of that wave. If you aren’t already moving in the right direction when the wave shows up, you’re likely to get tumbled or left behind.
Paddle — As the swell approaches, paddle in front of it to best match the direction and speed of the wave so that you have the greatest chance for it to carry you. Find the shoulder, the least steep part of the wave and the easiest to ride.
Pop Up — Feel the wave to first lift you up and then push you. This is the energy of the wave transferring to you and your board. In one smooth move, stop paddling and stand up on the board to ride.
Confirm — Now that you are standing on the wave, determine if the wave has a pocket. The pocket is the heart of the wave that allows surfers to gain speed and perform maneuvers. Some waves don’t have pockets, and surfers are forced to ride the shoulder. If your wave does not have a pocket, it’s time to dump it and look for the next. Always look for the wave’s pocket and adjust as it moves.
Ride — Now that you are up on a good wave, there is only one thing left to do: Ride it for all it’s worth.
Once you spot your wave, you must never take your eyes off it.
“To be a successful entrepreneur, you have to have a certain level of ignorance, because if you knew what was ahead when you started out, you’d never start.”
The indicators of a surge coming your way? There are typically three.
First and foremost, there is extreme loyalty and commitment from the early adopters, either to you or, more often, the concept.
In Brian’s case it was the use of sheepskin boots. Few American surfers were wearing UGGs at this point; there were only six pairs in circulation a few seasons before, after all. From the very few boots out there, a key surge indicator was visible, albeit barely:
The customers using the product were very loyal to it. They only wore sheepskin boots; there was no alternative. This little bump in the ocean is the energy within the water revealing itself: Customers using your product bring credibility. Customers using your product exclusively bring unquestionable credibility.
Second, those loyal, über-early adopter surfers were encouraging their friends to get a pair, too. And the friends did. For the surge watcher, the key indicator is this: Do the early adopters who are loyal to the new product have enough stick-to-it-iveness to fight through social pressure and inertia to convert more early adopters?
The third indicator, as Malcolm Gladwell so eloquently described in The Tipping Point, is this: Are the cool kids loyal to the new movement? Brands become statements. A newbie surfer who has a crap board, steals waves from the pros, and just sucks at surfing is not one of the “cool kids.” If the uncool guy is wearing UGGs, that will actually repulse other surfers from the boots. But if some of the cool kids are sporting the shoe, the initial surge elements are there, and word begins to spread. Word-of-mouth sales mean your offering stands on its own. It’s not only delivering on its promise to your customer, it’s selling itself. Your product is literally creating its own demand. Time to rally the troops!
(Why not start each chapter with action steps?)
To see the true opportunity that lies ahead for your business, you must (for now) pull your business out of the equation. Ask yourself, right now—and every day until you find the true answer—“What are my customers doing, regardless of me?”
If you think you see a wave, validate it by looking for the cool kids. The nature of being a cool kid is showing off. The early adopters of the Tesla, just like all cool kids, find a way for everyone to know about it. The question is, are they cool? And the answer is quite simple: Cool kids will convince others to do the same; uncool kids won’t. Whenever you find potential cool kids, try to find out if they have convinced others to buy. If so, you likely have an imminent wave—a surge.